Bitcoin Reverses Off Fresh 2026 Lows
BTC Bounces Off Lows
Bitcoin prices are higher today after the market reversed from Friday’s new YTD lows. BTC futures pierced below the $60,030 on Friday as the crypto sell off extended in response to a strong jump in Fed rate hike expectations. US jobs data on Friday came in well above forecasts with the headline NFP almost doubling from the prior reading, which was itself revised higher.
Hawkish Fed Views
With a much stronger jobs backdrop, pricing for a Fed rate hike this year jumped from around 50% to over 70% with USD rallying accordingly. Risk assets were seen recoiling in response to the shift with BTC plunging lower consequently. For now, though, it seems pricing is stabilising with BTC up around 7% from Friday’s lows and, crucially, back above the $60,030 level. Given the hawkish fed backdrop, however, and ongoing uncertainty over the Iran war, the near-term outlook remains fraught with downside risks.
Fresh Israel/Iran Attacks
The prospect of a peace deal between US/Israel and Iran looks further away again today after news of fresh missile attacks between Israel and Iran overnight. Trump is now urging both sides to de-escalate the situation and re-engage with the peace process. Any news of further attacks will be firmly bearish for BTC as USD surges on safe-haven demand and risk assets retreat further. Near-term. only a breakthrough and (very unexpected) positive news on negotiations is likely to help drive BTC properly higher. Instead, any bounce here is likely to find strong sell interest at higher levels.
Technical Views
BTC
The market has reversed back above the prior 2026 lows of $60,030 and now back above $62,470 also. The next test for bulls will be the $65,380 level. If bulls can breach that level, near-term downside risks should reduce for now. However, while below $65,380, risks of a fresh push lower towards $53,030 are seen.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.