Daily Market Outlook, March 9, 2026 

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Munnelly’s Macro Minute…

Global equities saw a rebound after The Financial Times revealed that the Group of Seven (G7) nations are considering a coordinated release of petroleum reserves to curb surging energy costs. Asia’s main stock index trimmed its earlier losses, declining by less than 4% after initially plunging as much as 5.6%. Similarly, equity futures in the US and Europe pared back their earlier dips. Despite this partial recovery, stock markets remained significantly lower for the day as fears mounted that the recent spike in oil prices could fuel inflation and strain the global economy. Crude oil prices surged past $100 per barrel on Monday for the first time since 2022, driven by escalating tensions in the US-Israel conflict with Iran. With no resolution in sight, both sides appear prepared for a prolonged confrontation, which could lead to further instability in oil prices and exacerbate inflationary pressures on the global economy. Meanwhile, the US Dollar strengthened, and government bond prices took a hit. Brent crude soared by as much as 29%, reaching $119.50 per barrel, building on last week’s 28% surge as the Iran crisis entered its second week. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also jumped by up to 31%. However, oil prices gave up some of their gains after the G7 petroleum reserve news broke. Elsewhere in the markets, gold prices declined as a stronger US Dollar and concerns about rising interest rates weighed on the precious metal. The surge in crude prices has stoked inflation worries in the US, increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve may opt to keep interest rates elevated for an extended period.

This week, the spotlight is on the potential fiscal measures governments might take to address the strain of rising energy prices. South Korea, for example, has proposed a fuel price cap, while reports suggest UK Labour leader Keir Starmer has hinted at possible support measures. To put things into perspective, the UK’s 2022-23 fiscal package, designed to mitigate the energy price surge caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, cost a staggering £52.2 billion. However, the initial projections, based on unclear wholesale price trends, were significantly higher. Adding to the complexity, the UK’s debt-interest payments on index-linked gilts are highly sensitive to inflation. For every 1 percentage point increase in RPI inflation by 2029–30, these payments will rise by £9.6 billion. A roughly 2.5 percentage point inflation shock could completely erode the government’s projected £23.6 billion fiscal ‘headroom.’ This doesn’t even account for potential economic slowdowns due to higher energy costs or additional cost-of-living support policies. With energy prices climbing, the case for further interest rate cuts is under scrutiny, while fiscal flexibility appears increasingly constrained. These dynamics could push markets to brace for the possibility of higher short- and long-term interest rates, adding another layer of uncertainty to the outlook.

Markets faced a challenging end to the week as rising energy prices combined with a dismal February US employment report, painting a stagflationary picture for the American economy. Efforts were made to downplay the disappointing -92k headline non-farm payrolls figure (median forecast: +60k), attributing the miss to adverse weather and striking healthcare workers. Notably, healthcare employment dropped by 19k month-over-month compared to January’s 116k increase and a monthly average of +56k over the past year. However, even excluding healthcare from the analysis, labor market conditions remained notably weak. Private sector job growth, excluding education and healthcare, declined by 52k month-over-month, and this figure likely overstates the underlying trend. Adjusting for benchmark revisions, the true decline could range between -110k and -130k jobs.  While healthcare continues to contribute to spending and growth, it also presents an imbalance that can erode broader economic stability. Rising healthcare costs, including labor expenses, were highlighted in the Beige Book as a factor behind cautious hiring. This fragility was further reflected in the uptick in the unemployment rate (to 4.44% from 4.29%) and another drop in the participation rate (to 62.0%). Although healthcare jobs are expected to rebound next month, the broader labor market conditions are likely to remain under pressure.

Overnight Headlines

• Oil Surges Over 25%, On Track For Record Daily Jump Due To Iran War

• Trump Demands Iran Relent As US Aims To Calm Energy Markets

• US Considers Idea Of Special Operation To Seize Iran’s Uranium

• Trump Says US May Target New Parts Of Iran In Escalating War

• Trump Says Good Reason Needed To Deploy Ground Troops To Iran

• Khamenei’s Son Takes Power In Iran As Trump Downplays Oil Spike

• Israel Blasts Fuel Depots In Iran As War Stretches Into Second Week

• US Energy Chief Says ‘Fear Premium’ in Oil Markets Will Ebb

• UK Jobs Market Became Less Gloomy Last Month, Recruiters Say

• Japan’s Real Wages Advance For First Time In 13 Months

• China Inflation Jumps as Oil Adds to Record Holiday Spending

• G7 To Discuss Joint Release Of Emergency Oil Reserves

• Bessent Says US May ‘Unsanction’ More Russia Oil Post India Move

• UAE And Kuwait Start Oil Output Cuts After Hormuz Blockage

• Saudi Boosts Red Sea Oil Shipments As Hormuz Disruption Curbs Exports

• China’s PBOC Extends Gold Buying As Middle East Tension Simmers

• Asian Equities Slump Amid Growing Middle East Conflict

• US Draws Up Strict New AI Guidelines Amid Anthropic Clash

• Novo And Hims End Feud, Will Sell Obesity Drugs Together

• OpenAI’s Head Of Robotics Resigns Over Company’s Pentagon Deal

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)

• EUR/USD 1.1600 (€2.3bn); 1.1650 (€1.9bn); 1.1675 (€1.2bn); 1.1690 (€891m)

• USD/JPY 155.00 ($1.4bn); 155.50 ($712m); 157.00 ($587m); 157.70 ($620m); 157.50 ($562m); 158.00 ($854m)

• USD/CAD 1.3500 ($831m)

• AUD/USD 0.6900 (A$515m); 0.6950 (A$704m); 0.7000 (A$1.4bn)

CFTC Positions as of March 6, 2026: 

• Equity fund speculators trim S&P 500 CME net short position by 66,786 contracts to 399,180 Equity fund managers cut S&P 500 CME net long position by 8,773 contracts to 996,776 

• Speculators increase CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures net short position by 25,863 contracts to 2,090,794 Speculators trim CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 119,513 contracts to 654,507 Speculators trim CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures net short position by 9,495 contracts to 1,338,541 Speculators trim CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures net short position by 24,793 contracts to 255,694 Speculators raise CBOT US Treasury bonds futures net long position by 15,191 contracts to 20,265 

• Bitcoin net long position is 1,011 contracts Swiss franc posts net short position of -41,283 contracts British pound net short position is -72,686 contracts Euro net long position is 136,498 contracts Japanese yen net short position is -16,575 contracts

Technical & Trade Views

SP500

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 6960 Target 7040

• Below 6700 Target 6500

EURUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 1.1860 Target 1.1960

• Below 1.16 Target 1.1450

GBPUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 1.3635 Target 1.3760

• Below 1.3400 Target 1.3150

USDJPY 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 157.50 Target 159.40

• Below 155 Target 152

XAUUSD

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 5150 Target 5325

• Below 5200 Target 4900

BTCUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 78k Target 81.5k

• Below 75k Target 53k