Daily Market Outlook, October 14, 2025
Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group
Munnelly’s Macro Minute…
US equity futures took a hit, while Asian stocks extended their slide amidst fresh trade-war tensions. The Yen strengthened, as cryptocurrency prices continued their decline; Bitcoin's modest rebound following Friday's historic crypto crash has reversed overnight and did little to soften the blow of a staggering $20 billion wipeout of leveraged bets, leaving parts of the market paralysed. This unprecedented shake-up obliterated months of speculative momentum and forced some funds to exit entirely, according to traders. Data from Coinglass reveals that open interest in Bitcoin futures plummeted from approximately $94 billion to around $70 billion across major exchanges—a dramatic single-day drop not seen in over two years. The sharp decline highlights the rapid unwinding of risk in a market still dominated by automatic margin calls and fragmented liquidity. S&P500 futures dropped 0.75%, with Nasdaq 100 futures slipping 0.95%, following China's latest retaliatory move against the U.S. by slapping tariffs on American subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean. Asian markets weren't spared either, tumbling 1.1%, as Japan's Nikkei 225 plunged 2.8%. Chinese stocks lost their earlier momentum, dipping 0.1%. Meanwhile, European markets are bracing for a rough opening, according to futures predictions. The Yen made a comeback, reversing earlier losses against the Dollar. Precious metals shined brightly, with silver soaring to a record-breaking high above $52.50 and gold also setting new highs. Treasury yields trimmed earlier gains, with the benchmark 10-year yield sitting at 4.04%. Amidst the back-and-forth, China and the U.S. have been engaging in discussions through their economic and trade consultation framework. Working-level meetings reportedly took place on Monday, as confirmed by China's commerce ministry. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent expressed optimism that Trump and Xi Jinping could still meet, though he cautioned that the U.S. is keeping all options open for responding to China's plans to limit rare earth exports. China had earlier sought additional consultations to address ongoing challenges. On Tuesday, China clarified that its export controls on rare earths and similar products are not intended to block exports entirely. Applications meeting the necessary criteria will continue to be processed, ensuring compliance with regulations while maintaining trade flow.
Chinese exports continue to defy the odds, showing resilience despite a sharp 27% year-on-year drop in trade with the US. In September, total shipments surged by 8.7% year-on-year, reaching an impressive USD329 billion—the fifth-largest monthly total on record. This remarkable performance likely reflects more than just the numbers, as previous records were set during the pandemic-driven goods boom or following weaker months. Imports also saw solid growth, yet the 12-month rolling trade surplus climbed to a new peak of USD1.177 trillion, a significant jump from USD898 billion recorded this time last year. China has managed to offset weaker US demand, driven by tariffs, by ramping up exports to Europe and capitalising on booming trade with regional economies like Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. Collectively, exports to these nations now surpass Chinese shipments to the US. On a sectoral level, China is not only exporting more but advancing up the value chain. Its leadership in new energy technologies, such as electric vehicle (EV) exports, is a testament to this shift. EV sales, which dominate vehicle exports, are growing while demand for lower-end consumer goods—the traditional backbone of Chinese exports—declines. This evolution presents challenges for competitors worldwide.
Navigating the maze of UK labour market statistics often reveals conflicting signals among similar data series, and the latest pay growth figures are no exception. Headline figures show that average earnings, including bonuses, rose by 5.0% year-on-year in the three months to August, a slight uptick of 0.2 percentage points from July. However, the private sector measure excluding bonuses—favored by the Bank of England—painted a less optimistic picture, with growth slipping by 0.3 percentage points to 4.4% year-on-year. A closer look suggests that the rise in the whole economy figure may partly reflect timing effects in both regular and bonus pay within the public sector. For the core private sector metric closely monitored by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), it now seems increasingly likely that Q3 pay growth will fall short of projections from the Bank’s August Monetary Policy Report. To hit the initially forecast 4.6% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q3, September would need to deliver an ambitious 1.2% month-on-month increase—far above the three-year average of 0.5%. Adding to the picture, the more up-to-date HMRC series showed a notable cooling, with median pay growth slowing by a full percentage point to 5.5% year-on-year in September. While this remains too high to align with the Bank’s 2% CPI inflation target, the broader narrative appears more reassuring for MPC doves. The headline rise in whole-economy pay growth to 5.0% may grab attention, but it arguably distracts from the more encouraging underlying trends.
Overnight Headlines
China Starts Charging Fees For US Ships Amid Trade Tensions
China Vows To Retaliate If Trump Makes Good On 100% Tariff Threat
Fed’s Paulson Sees Two More Cuts, Downplays Tariff Inflation
RBA: Monthly CPI And Steady Jobs Bolstered Case To Hold Rate
Citigroup’s Top Australia Banker Says RBA May Be Done With Cuts
UK To Tweak Planning Overhaul To Boost Economic Growth
JPMorgan Targets Doubling Asia Assets To $600B By 2030
Samsung Profit Surges 30% In Q3 On Strong Memory Chip Demand
Michelin Cuts Annual Outlook On Weak US Tire Demand
Trump To Meet Zelenskyy In Washington On Friday
BofA Hikes Gold Forecast To $5,000/Oz For 2026
Rare Earth Stocks Surge On Renewed US–China Tensions
Singapore GDP Beats Estimates, But Warns Of Slower 2026 Growth
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
EUR/USD: 1.1500 (1.6BLN), 1.1570-80 (506M), 1.1600 (1.2BLN), 1.1650 (700M)
GBP/USD: 1.3200 (385M), 1.3270 (160M), 1.3350 (424M)
AUD/USD: 0.6500 (1.3BLN), 0.6575-80 (600M), 0.6600 (1.1BLN)
NZD/USD: 0.5850-55 (520M). USD/CAD: 1.4000-10 (608M)
USD/JPY: 151.00 (660M), 151.50 (747M), 151.80 (310M)
152.00 (1.6BLN), 152.50-60 (462M), 152.70-75 (471M)
EUR/JPY: 176.00 (265M). AUD/JPY: 98.80 (200M), 99.00-05 (592M)
CFTC Positions as of the Week Ending 9/10/25
October 1, 2025: During the shutdown of the federal government, Commitments of Traders Reports will not be published
Technical & Trade Views
SP500
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 6440 Target 6800
Below 6700 Target 6400
EURUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Below 1.17 Target 1.14
Above 1.1750 Target 1.1850
GBPUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Below 1.34 Target 1.31
Above 1.35 Target 1.3580
USDJPY
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Below 150 Trgaet 148.5
Above 151 Target 154
XAUUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 4000 Target 4200
Below 3850 Target 3770
BTCUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 106k Target 118k
Below 105k Target 100k
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!