Daily Market Outlook, November 12, 2025
Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group
Munnelly’s Macro Minute…
Asian stocks advanced alongside Treasury bonds as weaker-than-expected U.S. employment figures fuelled optimism that the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates soon. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained, with tech shares bouncing back from earlier dips. In Tokyo, the Topix index climbed 1%, hitting a new all-time high. This impressive performance came even as SoftBank Group experienced a sharp drop of up to 10%, bringing its monthly losses to around 25% after announcing the sale of its entire Nvidia stake on Tuesday. Despite this setback, SoftBank, Japan's leading tech investment giant, has seen its shares more than double in value this year. Meanwhile, Nasdaq 100 futures mirrored the rise after Advanced Micro Devices jumped 4.8% in after-hours trading, driven by upbeat sales growth forecasts. European stock futures also signalled a positive start to the trading session.
The US government is making progress toward ending the shutdown, with a proposed bill set to provide a vote on expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies next month. The bill also includes temporary funding for the government through at least the end of January, covering the holiday season, and extended funding for certain agencies, such as the FDA and military construction projects, until next September. While this progress is encouraging, the ongoing data vacuum persists. As a result, private reports have gained heightened attention, including ADP's new weekly private jobs report released on Tuesday. The 'NER pulse' indicated an average decline of -11.25k jobs over the four weeks ending October 25 (a preliminary estimate), continuing the downward trend observed since late September. However, the series has a limited historical record, making definitive conclusions challenging, despite its alignment with weakness highlighted in last week’s Challenger jobs report. Thin trading during the US Veterans Day holiday likely amplified its impact on the US dollar, pushing EUR/USD back to the 1.1600 level. This situation underscores investor concerns, particularly as market expectations for a December FOMC rate cut have scaled back (now at 70% probability from fully priced). If the shutdown resolution helps fill existing data gaps, a broader market repricing seems likely. Market participants are bracing for a flood of delayed data once government agencies resume their operations.
The unexpected rise in the UK unemployment rate to 5.0% yesterday sparked significant movement in the rates markets. By the end of the day, the market-implied probability of a December rate cut surged from approximately 70% to 85%, while gilt yields dropped by 6-8 basis points. Meanwhile, US Treasuries remained inactive due to Veterans’ Day. Despite lingering concerns about the reliability of the unemployment rate data, largely due to well-known sample size issues, the overall tone of the report was undeniably soft. One noteworthy detail was the decline in total hours worked during Q3, as highlighted in the labour market report. This development could have critical implications for the upcoming Q3 GDP figures. For output to grow, either the input levels must increase or there must be gains in productivity—an area where the UK has struggled in recent years. The drop in labour input raises concerns about downside risks to the consensus GDP growth forecast of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter. If labour contributions have decreased, it naturally limits the potential for output expansion. As the week progresses, this labour market data could significantly influence market expectations for the December MPC meeting. The UK macroeconomic news cycle is far from over, and investors are closely watching for further developments.
Overnight Headlines
The Fed Is Increasingly Torn Over A December Rate Cut
Bank Of France Sees Economy Expanding Despite Political Risks
BoE’s Bailey Says QE Will Offset Its Costs In The Long Term
Trump’s 50-Year Mortgage Loses Steam As Industry Questions Costs
Regulators Move To Finalize Bank Capital Plan Tied To Treasuries
US-China Tensions Weigh On Lisbon’s Web Summit
Ukraine Will Host EU Summit To Unblock Membership Bid
Arrival Of US’s Largest Warship Ratchets Up Pressure On Venezuela
Trump’s H-1B Visa Crackdown To Accelerate Wall St’s Expansion In India
Trump Plans Dinner With Jamie Dimon, Wall Street Executives
Microsoft, Google To Invest Over $16B To Expand AI Infrastructure In Europe
SoftBank’s $5.8B Nvidia Stake Sale Stirs Fresh AI Bubble Fears
AMD Expects Profit To Triple By 2030, Data Center Chip Market $1T Growth
Lilly Drops CVS Drug Plan For Workers After Novo Obesity Deal
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
EUR/USD: 1.1500 (1.5BLN), 1.1530 (617M), 1.1550 (1.4BLN), 1.1575 (806M)
1.1585-90 (919M), 1.1600 (660M), 1.1640-50 (2BLN)
USD/CHF: 0.8050 (620M). EUR/GBP: 0.8800-15 (374M)
GBP/USD: 1.3100 (1.6BLN), 1.3150 (634M), 1.3200-10 (1BLN)
AUD/USD: 0.6495-0.6505 (2.4BLN), 0.6525-30 (1.2BLN), 0.6550-60 (906M)
NZD/USD: 0.5600 (538M), 0.5625 (180M)
USD/JPY: 154.00 (575M), 155.00 (371M), 155.10-15 (613M)
CFTC Positions as of the Week Ending 9/10/25
October 1, 2025: During the shutdown of the federal government, Commitments of Traders Reports will not be published
Technical & Trade Views
SP500
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 6785 Target 6936
Below 6779 Target 6699
EURUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 1.1591 Target 1.1650
Below 1.1559 Target 1.1483
GBPUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 1.3152 Target 1.3244
Below 1.3122 Target 1.2998
USDJPY
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 153.65 Target 155.23
Below 152.66 Target 151.37
XAUUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 4084 Target 4208
Below 4046 Target 3959
BTCUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 104.2k Target 106.3k
Below 104k Target 102.2k
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!