Institutional Insights: Goldman Sachs SP500 Positioning & Key levels 28/10/25
Consolidated Recap of GS Positioning Metrics:
Summary:
1. CTA Corner: Systematic macro positioning is near an 8 out of 10 overall, with relatively higher exposure in CTA/trend-following and VA vol-control strategies compared to risk-parity styles. We anticipate small to modest, relatively neutral flows, with limited sales in the baseline scenario.
2. GS PB Performance:
- Equity Fundamental L/S Estimate: Increased by +0.39% from 10/17 to 10/23 (compared to MSCI World TR +1.20%), driven by beta gains of +0.61%, partially offset by alpha losses of -0.22% due to long-side underperformance.
- Equity Systematic L/S Estimate: Declined by -0.44% during the same period, primarily due to alpha losses of -0.57% from long-side positions, partially mitigated by beta gains of +0.13% (link).
3. Buybacks: We are entering the final open window period of the year, expected to last through 12/19/2025. Currently, approximately 40% of the S&P 500 is in an open window, with this figure projected to exceed 60% by the end of the week.
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CTA Corner:
CTA Flows (Projections):
- Over the next week:
- Flat tape: Buyers $1.81B ($81M into the US)
- Up tape: Buyers $90M ($50M into the US)
- Down tape: Sellers $17.11B ($4.71B out of the US)
- Over the next month:
- Flat tape: Buyers $1.75B ($1.00B out of the US)
- Up tape: Buyers $13.95B ($3.39B into the US)
- Down tape: Sellers $194.22B ($65.62B out of the US)
Key SPX Pivot Levels:
- Short term: 6631
- Medium term: 6352
- Long term: 5902
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!