SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 31/10/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS, SUBTRACT POINT DIFFERENCE***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6830/40
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6939 SUP 6730
OCT EOM STRADDLE 6542/6951
NOV MOPEX 6951/6339
DEC QOPEX 6243/7085
DAILY STRUCTURE - ONE TIME FRAMING LOWER - 6913
WEEKLY STRUCTURE - ONE TIME FRAMING HIGHER - 6690
MONTHLY STRUCTURE - ONE TIME FRAMING HIGHER - 6371
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6872/62
DAILY RANGE RES 6953 SUP 6836
2 SIGMA RES 7009 SUP 6779
DAILY VWAP BULLISH 6897
VIX BULL BEAR ZONE 18.5
TRADES & TARGETS
LONG ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE RES
SHORT ON TEST/REJECT OF DAILY RANGE RES TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
U.S. EQUITIES COLOR: SQUISHY TAPE 30 October 2025
S&P closed down 99bps at 6,822, with MOC flows showing +$920m to BUY. NDX fell 147bps to 25,735, R2K dropped 76bps to 2,465, and the Dow slipped 23bps to 47,522. Total US equity trading volume reached 20.5 billion shares, exceeding the YTD daily average of 17.3 billion shares. VIX eased 6bps to 16.91, WTI Crude declined 31bps to $60.29, US 10YR yields rose 2bps to 4.09%, gold gained 86bps to $4,036, the DXY increased 29bps to 99.50, and Bitcoin tumbled 357bps to $107,467.
It was a "risk-off" session, with weakness concentrated in big tech. META faced heavy LO supply as concerns about "significantly faster" spending growth through 2026 rattled the market. Investors remain focused on clean AI winners, showing little tolerance for uncertainty, particularly in megacaps. The consumer sector also struggled, with restaurants at the center of the downturn (e.g., CMG -18%) and pressure on smaller retail/softline names unable to compete with larger market share gainers. The desk anticipates mixed-to-cautious consumer sentiment ahead.
After Hours Highlights:
- AMZN surged +11% after a major beat and raise. AWS revenue grew +20% YoY, with an impressive 34.6% operating income margin. Q3 2025 earnings highlighted strong eCommerce performance. Price target: $275. Positioning: 7/10.
- AAPL rose +5% (from -1%), driven by better-than-expected Services revenue ($28.75bn vs. $28.2bn consensus) and gross margins of 47.2% (vs. 46.6% consensus). iPhone revenue missed ($49bn vs. $50.5bn consensus), and China revenue disappointed ($14.5bn, -3.6% YoY, vs. $16.4bn consensus). Positioning: 6.5/10.
- NFLX announced a 10:1 stock split, following NOW’s split announcement overnight.
Activity levels on the floor were moderate, rated 6/10. The floor finished -413bps net for sale vs. a 30-day average of +9bps. LO flows were -$5bn net sellers, the largest sell skew since 7/31, driven by META and broader tech/macro exposures, followed by discretionary. Communication services sell skew ranked in the 93rd percentile on a 52-week lookback. HF flows were flat, with supply in financials and communication services offset by demand in macro and staples.
Other Post-Market Movers:
- WDC +7.5% (up 15% WTD): Beat on 1Q with 43.9% gross margins; guides 2Q revenue +3% QoQ at midpoint.
- TWLO +5%: Inline gross margins (50.1% vs. 50.2% consensus), revenue beat ($1.3bn vs. $1.25bn consensus), DBNER at 109%, and raised FY organic revenue guidance.
- TEAM +10%: F1Q Cloud revenue grew +26% YoY; RPO accelerated to $3.3bn (+42% YoY); guides F2Q Cloud revenue +22.5% YoY; announced $2.5bn buyback and new CPO/AI Officer (T Yehoshua, ex-Skype, ex-Google).
- RDDT reversed to +5% AHs.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!